It is possible that the world has already lost the opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5C, according to two new studies in the climate change of nature.

The Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, with 196 countries agreeing Pre -industrial. The new analyzes show that the world will exceed the latter, underlining the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions.

“Each warming increase above 1.5 degrees Celsius means worse extremes,” said Alex Cannon, a research scientist and Climate Change Canada, and author of one of the studies. “If we continue to warm the atmosphere, the consequences will be greater.”

In 2024, global temperatures reached 1.5 ° C throughout the year, the first time it happened in registered history. It was a marked deviation from the previous projections: the intergovernmental panel report on climate change published only one year before suggested that temperatures would reach 1.5 ° C in the early 2030s if the emissions were not cut. The gap left scientists wondering: “Is this a signal? These short -term surpluses above that indicative level that we really achieved that goal before we expected? Cannon said.

The reason for these questions is because the 1.5C threshold of the Paris Agreement does not focus on daily or even annual temperatures. On the other hand, it is based on a retrospective average of 20 years, which means that the world will not know that it has reached 1.5 ° C until after the fact. The two new studies try to avoid that through the use of climatic models to look forward depending on the current data to see if we have already entered a period of 20 years above 1.5 ° C.

Cannon’s study, and a separate study led by Emanuele Bevacqua, a climate scientist at the Helmholtz center for environmental research in Germany, both suggest that this is exactly what happened.

“Day the objective of 1.5C mostly,” Kate Marvel said in an email, research physics of the NASA Goddard Institute that was not part of any of the studies. “Yes, a single year more than 1.5C does not necessarily mean that the average temperature during the next 20 -year period will be 1.5 ° C,” he said, “but these documents are a rather convincing case that in the models, the first one is Probable that a single year above 1.5C falls within that period of 20 years. “

The findings are part of a growing investigation body that warns the world that its climatic objectives are increasingly out of reach and that warming accelerates. In fact, this January was the most popular in the registry despite the influence of cooling of an emerging girl.

The new studies put the chances of being in the middle of a period of 20 years in which the Earth violates 1.5 ° C to be somewhere between “probable” and “practically safe”. Despite that, both Cannon and Bevacqua agree that heating can be arrested drastically reducing the use of fossil fuels.

But the possibility that this happens is to reduce the assault of the Trump administration to climate action. Since he assumed the position, his administration has taken measures to increase the production of fossil fuels and withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. According to reports, other world leaders are considering following their example, creating winds against the necessary deep emission cuts.

The 1.5 ° C threshold was included in the Paris agreement largely at the request of the small states in the island, many of which would be eliminated from the map by the increase in sea level if the planet is heated beyond . More recent investigations have found that even 1.5 ° C, the states in development of small islands run the risk of flooding sea level.

“Even if we reach the threshold of global heating level of 1.5 degrees in the future, we must still aim not to exceed it too much or even make sure that this is our temporary overcoming so that we can stabilize the temperature and at some point cool the temperature,” Bevacqua said.

That has been a scream of meeting for years. However, the world has not been able to pay attention to it, since carbon pollution has continued to rise to the registered maximums.

“Quick short -term emission cuts can limit maximum heating and reduce climatic risks,” Marvel said. “If that deserves action or is not (alone) that scientists decide.”

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